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Background and Objectives: Serological studies are based on the detection of antibodies. However, the produced antibodies decrease over time;therefore, such methods cannot provide a valid estimate of prevalence and incidence. The present study aimed to determine the serum prevalence and cumulative incidence in the Ravansar cohort population (Youth and RaNCD Cohort) in October 2020. Methods: A random sample of 716 people aged > 18 years old were selected from the participants in the Ravansar cohort study in October 2020. Euroimmun anti-SARS COV-2 IgG ELISA kits (Lubeck, Germany) were used to measure antibody levels. Seroprevalence was estimated with considering of cut-off = 1, and cumulative incidence (modified and modified based on test specificity) was determined using modeling. Results: In the present study, the serum prevalence of COVID-19 viral infection in the Ravansar cohort population from 22 October 2020 to 18 November 2020 was estimated to be %35.16 (95%CI: %31.64, %38.79). Modified Cumulative incidence and modified based on test characteristics from 20 February to 18 November 2020 were estimated to be %68.85 and %67.71, respectively. Conclusion: Although very high cumulative incidence may be a sign of approaching herd immunity, adherence to health protocols is still recommended due to the potential role of asymptomatic cases in transmitting the disease to other members of the community;and the presence of new variants of the virus and reduced antibody levels should be considered.
ABSTRACT
Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a general population from Kermanshah province, Iran. Method(s): The present study was a population-based cross-sectional design conducted in Kermanshah province in 2020. Sampling was performed in a multi-stage process, and 1967 participants were considered, and also 174 interviewers were assigned to collect data online. Then, 5 mL of blood sample was taken from every participant. The blood samples were centrifuged with the ELISA method to detect SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG and IgM antibodies in serum samples. Seropositive prevalence was adjusted by means of survey analysis. Case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR) were estimated. Result(s): A total of 1967 people from 14 cities of the province participated in the study. The mean age of participants was 35.7+/-16.9, and 50.4% were female. The lowest and highest seroprevalence was found in the cities of Paveh (2.3% [0.3-4.2]) and Harsin (61.6% [54.7-68.5]), respectively. The CFR and IFR in men and women were 3.4 vs. 3.3 and 0.1 vs. 0.3. The aged 60 years or older had the highest CFR and IFR with 11.2 and 3.7%, respectively. Conclusion(s): The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and IFR among the general population of Kermanshah province was 18.3 and 0.3%, respectively. The results of this study can assist the policymaker in assessing risk factors, and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a population and implementing preventive and control interventions.Copyright © 2023 Shadmani et al.
ABSTRACT
Background and Objectives: Serological studies are based on the detection of antibodies. However, the produced antibodies decrease over time;therefore, such methods cannot provide a valid estimate of prevalence and incidence. The present study aimed to determine the serum prevalence and cumulative incidence in the Ravansar cohort population (Youth and RaNCD Cohort) in October 2020. Method(s): A random sample of 716 people aged > 18 years old were selected from the participants in the Ravansar cohort study in October 2020. Euroimmun anti-SARS COV-2 IgG ELISA kits (Lubeck, Germany) were used to measure antibody levels. Seroprevalence was estimated with considering of cut-off = 1, and cumulative incidence (modified and modified based on test specificity) was determined using modeling. Result(s): In the present study, the serum prevalence of COVID-19 viral infection in the Ravansar cohort population from 22 October 2020 to 18 November 2020 was estimated to be %35.16 (95%CI: %31.64, %38.79). Modified Cumulative incidence and modified based on test characteristics from 20 February to 18 November 2020 were estimated to be %68.85 and %67.71, respectively. Conclusion(s): Although very high cumulative incidence may be a sign of approaching herd immunity, adherence to health protocols is still recommended due to the potential role of asymptomatic cases in transmitting the disease to other members of the community;and the presence of new variants of the virus and reduced antibody levels should be considered.Copyright © 2022 The Authors.
ABSTRACT
Background and Objectives: Serological studies are based on the detection of antibodies. However, the produced antibodies decrease over time;therefore, such methods cannot provide a valid estimate of prevalence and incidence. The present study aimed to determine the serum prevalence and cumulative incidence in the Ravansar cohort population (Youth and RaNCD Cohort) in October 2020. Method(s): A random sample of 716 people aged > 18 years old were selected from the participants in the Ravansar cohort study in October 2020. Euroimmun anti-SARS COV-2 IgG ELISA kits (Lubeck, Germany) were used to measure antibody levels. Seroprevalence was estimated with considering of cut-off = 1, and cumulative incidence (modified and modified based on test specificity) was determined using modeling. Result(s): In the present study, the serum prevalence of COVID-19 viral infection in the Ravansar cohort population from 22 October 2020 to 18 November 2020 was estimated to be %35.16 (95%CI: %31.64, %38.79). Modified Cumulative incidence and modified based on test characteristics from 20 February to 18 November 2020 were estimated to be %68.85 and %67.71, respectively. Conclusion(s): Although very high cumulative incidence may be a sign of approaching herd immunity, adherence to health protocols is still recommended due to the potential role of asymptomatic cases in transmitting the disease to other members of the community;and the presence of new variants of the virus and reduced antibody levels should be considered.Copyright © 2022 The Authors.
ABSTRACT
Background & Objective:) Classroom management is the first level of educational management that affects the quality of education. In fact, classroom management plays a fundamental role in the formation of education structure, teaching process and personality development, and mental, emotional, educational, and training process of learners. The present study aimed to determine the effect of teachers' classroom management style on dental students' responsibility. Materials & Methods:) This was a descriptive and correlational study performed on dental students of Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences following passing the basic sciences exam. The sample size was estimated at 97 (out of 132) using the Morgan table. In addition, data were collected using a framework by Wolfgang and Glickman (1986) and the Five-Factor Model by Costa & McCrae (1991). Furthermore, data analysis was performed in SPSS version 26 using descriptive statistics and a linear regression model. Results: In this study, the mean score of classroom management and responsibility variables was 4.0±11.36 (out of 5) and 3.83±1.22, respectively. Among the classroom management dimensions, the highest mean estimated was related to behavior management (4.1±29.01). According to the results, education management, individual management, and behavior management had a significant positive effect on dental students' responsibility. Overall, teachers' classroom management style predicted 55% of the responsibility of dental students. Conclusion: According to the results of the study, all three dimensions of education management, individual management, and behavior management had an impact on students' responsibility. In addition, the individual management dimension had the most effect on the responsibility of participants. Based on our findings, dental students will gain more responsibility during the training by benefiting from the guidance and support of teachers. © 2022, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences and Health Services. All rights reserved.
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BACKGROUND: Given the global burden of COVID-19 mortality, this study intended to determine the factors affecting mortality in patients with COVID-19 using decision tree analysis and logistic regression model in Kermanshah province, 2020. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 7799 patients with COVID-19 admitted to the hospitals of Kermanshah province. Data gathered from February 18 to July 9, 2020, were obtained from the vice-chancellor for the health of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences. The performance of the models was compared according to the sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: According to the decision tree model, the most important risk factors for death due to COVID-19 were age, body temperature, admission to intensive care unit (ICU), prior hospital visit within the last 14 days, and cardiovascular disease. Also, the multivariate logistic regression model showed that the variables of age [OR = 4.47, 95% CI: (3.16 -6.32)], shortness of breath [OR = 1.42, 95% CI: (1.0-2.01)], ICU admission [OR = 3.75, 95% CI: (2.47-5.68)], abnormal chest X-ray [OR = 1.93, 95% CI: (1.06-3.41)], liver disease [OR = 5.05, 95% CI (1.020-25.2)], body temperature [OR = 4.93, 95% CI: (2.17-6.25)], and cardiovascular disease [OR = 2.15, 95% CI: (1.27-3.06)] were significantly associated with the higher mortality of patients with COVID-19. The area under the ROC curve for the decision tree model and logistic regression was 0.77 and 0.75, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying risk factors for mortality in patients with COVID-19 can provide more effective interventions in the early stages of treatment and improve the medical approaches provided by the medical staff.
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There is no report on the serial interval (SI) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Iran, the present report aims to estimate the SI and time-varying R of COVID-19 in western Iran. In this study, there were 1477 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 for Kermanshah from 22 February to 9 April. The close contacts of the confirmed cases were identified using telephone follow up of patients and their contacts. The SI distribution was used as an alternative. We fitted different models using the clinical onset dates of patients with their close contact (infector-infectee). Also, we applied a 'serial interval from sample' approach as a Bayesian methodology for estimating reproduction number. From 22 February to 29 March, 247 COVID-19 cases were confirmed by RT-PCR. Close contact between 21 patients (21 infector-infectee pairs), including 12 primary cases and 21 secondary cases, was confirmed. The mean and standard deviation of the SI were estimated as 5.71 and 3.89 days. The R varied from 0.79 to 1.88 for a 7-day time-lapse and ranged from 0.92 to 1.64 for a 14-day time-lapse on raw data. Also, the R varied from 0.83 to 1.84 for 7-day time-lapse and from 0.95 to 1.54 for a 14-day time-lapse using moving average data, respectively. It can be concluded that the low reproduction number for COVID-19 in Kermanshah province is an indication of the effectiveness of preventive and interventive programmes such as quarantine and isolation. Consequently, continuing these preventive measures is highly recommended.